Technology and material efficiency scenarios for net zero emissions in the UK steel sector

With the UK's legislation of a 2050 net zero emissions target, there is urgent need for radical industrial decarbonisation. The steel sector represented 12% UK in 2016 and therefore critical target mitigation. Mainstream scenario analyses variously assume use unproven Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) or reductions to demand order reach 1.5 °C compatible budget by 2050. This analysis aims to: a) assess mitigation potential current technology options (excluding CCS) towards cumulative aligned assuming constant demand; b) evaluate material efficiency close any gaps, (where providing same useful ‘service’ with less input energy-intensive materials); c) discuss importance sectoral assumptions other uncertainties estimating scale future required industry policy implications this. We modelled four key scenarios including plant retrofit, replacement steelmaking technologies best practice standards, fuel shifts greater Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) production, implementation selected novel technologies, under different ambition levels. Technology could reduce Greenhouse Gas (GHG) (2016–2050) as much 44% against baseline, whilst coupled achieve 53%. also find that grid electricity decarbonisation earlier reduction can additional mitigation, may still be some CCS capacity long-term address residual emissions. In most ambitious case, absolute GHG from reduced 80% levels, found effective interventions were through established such EAF since they immediately available, condition are implemented faster than previously observed. Given commercialisation constraints structural production considered highly important. However, changes necessarily more complex influence via policy, little precedent change design UK. Our results show only complementary combining would level near conclude it possible sector, but this require levels degree removal capacity. • develop model options. Retrofit suggest highest short-term potential. Coupled achieved greatest reductions. Greater should complement interventions. Challenges include reducing adding value low-carbon steel.